Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction

Ajax – AZ Alkmaar, Eredivisie, Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 08:00 PM (GMT). Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena

Ajax is #4 in the table (18 pts) and AZ Alkmaar #2 (20 pts). It's a clash between two of the top four. Ajax is unbeaten in its last 5 matches. Ajax averages 3 goals per match this season. AZ Alkmaar averages 2.2 goals per match this season. Last 6 head-to-head meetings: Ajax 0, draws 2, AZ Alkmaar 4.

AI confidence: Medium

AI match recap

Ajax bring strong league momentum and home initiative into a high-stakes meeting between sides near the top of the Eredivisie. Their attack has been consistently productive, but a cluster of confirmed absences leaves Míchel Sánchez short of familiar defensive experience and without Kasper Dolberg up front. AZ have a powerful recent record against Ajax and possess the transition game to expose any overcommitment. The home side’s ability to turn possession into sustained pressure, without leaving open lanes behind their back line, is the central issue.

Predicted score and probabilities

The AI's exact score, win/draw/loss probabilities, both teams to score, over/under 2.5 and 4 key factors are in the full analysis.

See the full AI analysis

Head-to-head analysis

AZ are unbeaten in the last ten meetings with Ajax, a run containing several victories and repeated shutouts. Ajax’s last home meeting with AZ also ended in defeat, making this a genuine recent matchup problem rather than a one-off result.

Injuries and absences

Ajax’s confirmed absences are substantial: Blind’s leadership and progressive passing, Berghuis’s creativity, and Dolberg’s centre-forward presence are all missing, while injuries also restrict Sánchez’s full-back options. Adingra, Bissouma and Bouwman being available gives Ajax fresh alternatives, but not like-for-like replacements for every missing role.

Form (last 5)

AjaxLeague position #4 · 18 ptsD D W
AZ AlkmaarLeague position #2 · 20 ptsW L D

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar stats

AjaxAZ Alkmaar
Played99
Goals scored2720
Goals conceded1210
Clean sheets23

Last meetings

  • 2026-02-08AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Ajax
  • 2026-01-14AZ Alkmaar 6-0 Ajax
  • 2025-10-18Ajax 0-2 AZ Alkmaar
  • 2025-03-16Ajax 2-2 AZ Alkmaar
  • 2025-01-14AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Ajax
  • 2024-12-08AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Ajax

Other Eredivisie matches