How our AI football predictions work

1. The data we use

For every covered match we collect bookmaker odds for the main markets (1X2, both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals), each team's season statistics and recent form, the league table, head-to-head results, injuries and suspensions, expected line-ups and the weather forecast at the stadium. Our AI also searches recent news about both teams before writing its analysis.

2. From bookmaker odds to probabilities

Bookmaker odds are the best public estimate of a match, but they include a margin. We convert odds into probabilities and remove that margin so the three outcomes add up to 100%.

Example: odds of 2.00 / 3.40 / 3.80 imply 50.0% + 29.4% + 26.3% = 105.7%. The extra 5.7% is the bookmaker's margin. Normalised, the probabilities become 47.3% (home), 27.8% (draw) and 24.9% (away).

3. What the AI adds

Our AI model then reviews everything the odds may not fully reflect yet: form, absences, expected line-ups, head-to-head patterns, weather and fresh news. It writes an analysis explaining the key factors of the match, a predicted score and a confidence level. The predicted score must stay consistent with the probabilities.

4. When predictions are published and updated

Matches in our main competitions are analysed once bookmakers publish their odds, usually within the week before kickoff. Each analysis is refreshed about three days before the match and again within the last 24 hours, so late injury and line-up news is taken into account.

5. How every prediction is graded

After the final whistle we compare the prediction with the real result: was the outcome (home win, draw, away win) right, and was the exact score right? Every full analysis is counted — nothing is deleted or hidden. Quick previews generated on demand for smaller competitions are tracked separately and not included in our headline numbers.

6. Limits

Football is uncertain: a well-reasoned prediction can still lose, and no model can guarantee a result. Our predictions are statistical estimates for information, not betting advice. Gambling is for adults (18+) only — set limits and never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Our current record

53%

Correct outcome

9%

Exact score

5231

Matches graded