UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima prediction

UCV Moquegua – Alianza Lima, Primera División, Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 06:15 PM (GMT). Venue: Estadio 25 de Noviembre

UCV Moquegua is #16 in the table (28 pts) and Alianza Lima #1 (62 pts). 15 places separate the two teams in the table. Alianza Lima is unbeaten in its last 5 matches. Their last meeting, on May 3, 2026, ended Alianza Lima 2-1 UCV Moquegua.

AI confidence: Medium

AI match recap

This is a major test of Moquegua’s new confidence against the division’s leaders. José Soto has openly signalled a compact defensive plan built around restricting Gaibor’s influence and preventing Castillo from running into space. Alianza retain their principal creators and pace, but arrive with confirmed absences in midfield, defence and attack, so their control after turnovers is the key pressure point. Moquegua need a disciplined first hour and a decisive moment from a counterattack or dead ball.

Predicted score and probabilities

The AI's exact score, win/draw/loss probabilities, both teams to score, over/under 2.5 and 5 key factors are in the full analysis.

See the full AI analysis

Head-to-head analysis

The only listed meeting this season was a narrow Alianza Lima home win. That result offers limited predictive weight, but it supports the expectation of Moquegua competing more through defensive resistance than open exchanges.

Injuries and absences

Alianza’s confirmed absences remove Pavez, Antoni and Guerrero, while Díaz’s health issue may further thin the centre-back options. The likely replacements preserve the basic structure but make the visitors more vulnerable to direct counters and aerial second balls than their settled unit.

Form (last 5)

UCV MoqueguaLeague position #16 · 28 ptsL L W
Alianza LimaLeague position #1 · 62 ptsW W W

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima stats

UCV MoqueguaAlianza Lima
Played2929
Goals scored2549
Goals conceded4320
Clean sheets811

Last meetings

  • 2026-05-03Alianza Lima 2-1 UCV Moquegua

Other Primera División matches