Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin prediction

Atletico Nacional – Independiente Medellin, Primera A, Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 11:10 PM (GMT). Venue: Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Atletico Nacional is #1 in the table (40 pts) and Independiente Medellin #11 (26 pts). 10 places separate the two teams in the table. Last 6 head-to-head meetings: Atletico Nacional 4, draws 2, Independiente Medellin 0. Their last meeting, on October 15, 2026, ended Atletico Nacional 3-2 Independiente Medellin.

Atletico Nacional

11:10 PM

Independiente Medellin

AI confidence: Medium

AI match recap

This is a Clásico Paisa with Nacional holding the stronger league position, home platform and recent derby edge. DIM arrive in poorer form but have a genuine opening because Nacional’s demanding schedule has been followed by injuries across both their back line and attack. The contest should be decided by whether Nacional’s midfield creators can control possession without exposing their patched-up defensive structure. DIM need disciplined defending and fast, direct transitions rather than an open exchange.

Predicted score and probabilities

The AI's exact score, win/draw/loss probabilities, both teams to score, over/under 2.5 and 5 key factors are in the full analysis.

See the full AI analysis

Head-to-head analysis

Nacional have won the two most recent competitive derbies, including the recent Copa Colombia encounter, and DIM have not beaten them across the listed recent meetings. The fixture remains volatile, however: several of those games have been level or decided by a single key moment.

Injuries and absences

Nacional’s reported absences are structurally significant: Tesillo and Reyes weaken central-defensive continuity, while Moreno, Sarmiento and Morelos remove pace and finishing options. DIM’s key late decision is Quintero; his availability would add composure, set-piece quality and a final-ball specialist to their attacking rotations.

Form (last 5)

Atletico NacionalLeague position #1 · 40 ptsW L W

Independiente MedellinLeague position #11 · 26 ptsL W L

Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin stats

	Atletico Nacional	Independiente Medellin
Played	39	33
Goals scored	77	47
Goals conceded	33	43
Clean sheets	13	7

Last meetings

2026-10-15Atletico Nacional 3-2 Independiente Medellin
2026-04-12Independiente Medellin 2-3 Atletico Nacional
2025-12-18Independiente Medellin 0-1 Atletico Nacional
2025-12-13Atletico Nacional 0-0 Independiente Medellin
2025-12-04Atletico Nacional 2-1 Independiente Medellin
2025-11-23Independiente Medellin 0-0 Atletico Nacional