Marseille vs Toulouse prediction

Marseille – Toulouse, Ligue 1, Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 07:45 PM (GMT). Venue: Orange Vélodrome

Marseille is #10 in the table (9 pts) and Toulouse #12 (9 pts). Toulouse is unbeaten in its last 5 matches. Marseille averages 2 goals per match this season. Last 6 head-to-head meetings: Marseille 3, draws 3, Toulouse 0. Their last meeting, on March 7, 2026, ended Toulouse 0-1 Marseille.

AI confidence: Medium

AI match recap

Marseille have home advantage and the stronger recent pedigree in this fixture, but Toulouse arrive with a steadier league rhythm and a credible away threat. The key contest is central: Marseille need to replace the control and defensive cover reportedly lost with Højbjerg, while Toulouse will look to play through Cásseres after turnovers. Marseille’s crowded schedule also makes game management important, particularly if they establish an early lead. Expect an assertive home start, followed by a match that opens whenever Toulouse can escape the first press.

Predicted score and probabilities

The AI's exact score, win/draw/loss probabilities, both teams to score, over/under 2.5 and 5 key factors are in the full analysis.

See the full AI analysis

Head-to-head analysis

Marseille have generally held the upper hand in the recent rivalry, but the fixture has also delivered several high-scoring draws. Toulouse have repeatedly shown they can score against Marseille, so past meetings support an open contest rather than a routine home performance.

Injuries and absences

External reporting lists Højbjerg and Cornelius as unavailable for Marseille, which would weaken both midfield protection and depth across the defensive unit. Those reports conflict with the supplied absence feed and require confirmation when official team news arrives.

Form (last 5)

MarseilleLeague position #10 · 9 ptsL W W
ToulouseLeague position #12 · 9 ptsW D W

Marseille vs Toulouse stats

MarseilleToulouse
Played77
Goals scored1412
Goals conceded1011
Clean sheets21

Last meetings

  • 2026-03-07Toulouse 0-1 Marseille
  • 2026-03-04Marseille 2-2 Toulouse
  • 2025-11-29Marseille 2-2 Toulouse
  • 2025-04-06Marseille 3-2 Toulouse
  • 2024-08-31Toulouse 1-3 Marseille
  • 2024-04-21Toulouse 2-2 Marseille

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