Manchester City vs Brighton prediction

Manchester City – Brighton, Carabao Cup, Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 07:30 PM (GMT). Venue: Etihad Stadium

Last 6 head-to-head meetings: Manchester City 2, draws 2, Brighton 2. Their last meeting, on January 7, 2026, ended Manchester City 1-1 Brighton.

AI confidence: Medium

AI match recap

City have home control and the stronger forward-looking market position, but Brighton arrive with momentum and a recent record of making this matchup uncomfortable. The cup setting complicates selection, particularly with the same opponents scheduled to meet again at this ground shortly afterwards. Brighton’s reported injury list is the pivotal variable: missing pace and ball-winning capacity would weaken both their press and their transition threat. Clear, cool conditions should allow a quick technical match rather than imposing an external constraint.

Predicted score and probabilities

The AI's exact score, win/draw/loss probabilities, both teams to score, over/under 2.5 and 5 key factors are in the full analysis.

See the full AI analysis

Head-to-head analysis

Brighton are unbeaten in the last four meetings, a sequence that includes consecutive victories before the most recent draw. City retain the stronger longer-term record, but the immediate history makes this a more awkward matchup than the venue alone suggests.

Injuries and absences

The web availability report would be highly significant for Brighton if confirmed: potential absences of Wieffer, Mitoma, Minteh and Ferguson remove balance across midfield, wide transition play and the forward line. It conflicts with the supplied absence data, so the official squads should override this assessment.

Form (last 5)

Manchester CityW
BrightonW

Manchester City vs Brighton stats

Manchester CityBrighton
Played11
Goals scored53
Goals conceded02
Clean sheets10

Last meetings

  • 2026-01-07Manchester City 1-1 Brighton
  • 2025-08-31Brighton 2-1 Manchester City
  • 2025-03-15Manchester City 2-2 Brighton
  • 2024-11-09Brighton 2-1 Manchester City
  • 2024-04-25Brighton 0-4 Manchester City
  • 2023-10-21Manchester City 2-1 Brighton

Other Carabao Cup matches